Analisis Tren Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Rupiah Indonesia (IDR) terhadap Ringgit Malaysia (MYR)
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the trend and forecast the exchange rate of IDR against MYR by comparing two trend models, namely the linear and quadratic trend models. The analysis results show a downward trend in the IDR to MYR exchange rate during the observed period. From the comparison of both models, the quadratic trend model proves to be more effective in depicting the exchange rate movement pattern, as it yields a smaller MAPE value, indicating higher prediction accuracy. The quadratic model is better at capturing complex fluctuations of the exchange rate, providing better results than the linear model. Therefore, the quadratic trend model is more suitable for modeling the downward trend in the IDR to MYR exchange rate.
References
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[3] D. Salvatore, Ekonomi Internasional, Edisi 9. Malang: Salemba Empat, 2014.
[4] G. T. Meilania, A. V. Septiani, E. Erianti, K. A. Notodiputro, and Y. Angraini, “Pemodelan ARIMA-GARCH dalam Peramalan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Yen dengan Masalah Keheterogenan Ragam,” Ekon. J. Econ. Bus., vol. 8, no. 1, p. 165, 2024, doi: 10.33087/ekonomis.v8i1.1294.
[5] Sulfarid and I. Haris, “Kebijakan Local Currency Settlement Di Indonesia,” J. Islam. Bus. Manag. Stud., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 108–119, 2022.
[6] D. N. Filza, L. Sabila, and S. Felisia, “Analisis Kebijakan Local Currency Settlement antara Indonesia dan China,” Public Knowl., vol. 1, no. 2, 2024, doi: 10.62771/pk.v1i2.16.
[7] Mellynia and M. F. Karim, “How the state frames its engagement in renminbi internationalization: The case of Indonesia,” Asian Polit. Policy, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 94–112, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/aspp.12729
[8] C. V. Duran, “The international lender of last resort for emerging countries : A bilateral currency swap? The International Lender of Last Resort for Emerging Countries : A Bilateral Currency Swap?,” 108, 2015. [Online]. Available: University of Oxford, Global Economic Governance Programme (GEG)%0D
[9] G. Permana, “Permasalahan dalam implementasi local currency settlement Indonesia-Malaysia (2018–2021),” Universitas Katolik Parahyangan, 2023.
[10] I. K. A. Diana and N. P. M. Dewi, “Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Atas Dolar Amerika Serikat Di Indonesia,” E-Jurnal EP Unud, vol. 9, no. 8, pp. 1631–1661, 2019.
[11] F. Sidqi and I. D. Sumitra, “Forecasting Product Selling Using Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods,” IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng., vol. 662, no. 3, 2019, doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/662/3/032031.
[12] Akbarizan et al., “Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia,” Am. J. Appl. Sci., vol. 13, no. 12, pp. 1342–1346, 2016, doi: 10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346.
[13] A. Syahrindra, T. Ekowati, and W. D. Prastiwi, “Analisis Trend Dan Peramalan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Sektor Pertanian Provinsi Jawa Tengah,” J. Litbang Provinsi Jawa Teng., vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 21–34, 2023, doi: 10.36762/jurnaljateng.v21i1.988.
[14] Fauziah, Y. I. Ningsih, and E. Setiarini, “Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Jasa Pada Warnet Bulian City di Muara Bulian,” J. Ilm. Ekon. dan Bisnis, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 61–67, 2019.
[15] V. Devia and F. Fadli, Mendalami Korelasi Pasar Saham, Inflasi, dan Nilai Tukar. Malang: Universitas Brawijaya Press, 2024.
[16] T. Alawiyah, H. Haryadi, and Y. Vyn Amzar, “Pengaruh inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap nilai tukar rupiah dengan pendekatan model struktural VAR,” e-Journal Perdagang. Ind. dan Monet., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 51–60, 2019, doi: 10.22437/pim.v7i1.8339.
Published
2025-03-17
How to Cite
Anwar, M. (2025). Analisis Tren Nilai Tukar Mata Uang Rupiah Indonesia (IDR) terhadap Ringgit Malaysia (MYR). Jurnal Ilmiah Ecobuss, 13(1), 50-59. https://doi.org/10.51747/ecobuss.v13i1.2305
Section
Articles
